Key Takeaways from Rochis Capital - Quarter 1 2026 Quarterly Newsletter
While geopolitical events can cause short-term variation and volatility, the Rochis Capital investment strategy is designed for long-term resilience. Portfolio performance was generally in line with or better than benchmarks, and the disciplined, diversified approach employed aims to manage risk across changing market conditions.
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1. Market Overview and Geopolitical Variation
- Recent tensions involving Iran highlight how geopolitical events can unsettle markets in the short term, particularly through energy prices and inflation expectations.
- Short-term volatility, especially in energy markets, can influence inflation expectations and broader economic activity, particularly in energy-importing regions like Asia and Europe.
- The investment team monitors these developments but does not adjust the long-term strategic asset allocation in response to short-term events. Diversification across asset classes and regions, along with defensive allocations to cash and fixed interest, is intended to provide resilience and stability during periods of heightened uncertainty.
2. Market Performance (Q1 2026)
- The S&P 500 fell sharply during March before recovering to end the quarter down -4.6%, reflecting inflation and interest rate concerns rather than as a result of weaker company earnings.
- Bond markets were under pressure as investors demanded higher returns on longer-term securities due to uncertainty caused by inflation and rising government debt levels.
- In Australia, shares fell -2.6%, the 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.80%, inflation stayed above target, and the RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.1% (then 4.35% in May).
3. Model Portfolio Performance – to 31 March 2026.
- Nextplan Diverse Forty, NXTDIV40 - “Moderately Conservative”:
- 3 months: -1.03% (excess return over benchmark: +0.18%)
- 12 months: 5.82% (excess return over benchmark: +0.93%)
- Nextplan Diverse Sixty, NXTDIV60 - “Balanced”:
- 3 months: -1.70% (excess return: +0.12%)
- 12 months: 6.95% (excess return: -0.01%)
- Nextplan Diverse Eighty, NXTDIV80 - “Growth”:
- 3 months: -2.40% (excess return: +0.21%)
- 12 months: 8.04% (excess return: -0.85%)
- These figures are based on shadow portfolios and may differ from individual client results due to cashflows, timing, and fees.
4. Strategic Insights
- The investment approach remains disciplined and long-term, with a focus on diversification and risk management. The portfolios are positioned to participate in ongoing economic resilience while retaining robustness should risk conditions deteriorate.
5. Important Disclaimers
- This information is general in nature and does not constitute personal financial advice. Investors should consult their adviser before making decisions.